Volumes of the main timber and panel products imports in the 11 months to November 2024 were very similar to 2023 volumes, down by just 0.2% (around 20,000m3), according to a report by TDUK.
Solid wood imports between January and November 2024 were 0.3% higher than over the same period in 2023, while imports of panel products were 1.3% lower (down from 2.5% in the previous month). This improvement during October and November, when compared with the same months in 2023, has sharply reduced the overall deficit in volume for the year as a whole.
The percentage cumulative deficit began to fall after the weak first quarter of 2024, with volumes improving throughout the second half of the year. The 15% growth in import volumes seen in October, and the 11% growth in November, accelerated this improvement and resulted in four of the main product groups recording growth over 2023 for the 11 months of 2024. Better import volumes in the second half of 2024 have placed volumes of softwood, plywood, OSB and Engineered Wood Products ahead of 2023 for the year-to-date.
Softwood import volumes by the end of November 2024 were 0.2% higher than over the 11 months of 2023 – the first time in 2024 that year-to-date growth was recorded. The value of planed softwood was 1.7% higher and the value of sawn goods was lower by 1.4%. As reported previously, a number of supplying countries outside of the leading group have supplied significantly more volume in 2024, including Norway, Austria, Lithuania, Netherlands and Canada. Along with Latvia and the Irish Republic, the improvement in volume from these countries has marginally outweighed the lower volumes in 2024 to date from countries such as Sweden, Finland and Germany.
The deficit in hardwood volume imports in the 11 months to November 2024 fell to around 11,000m3, when compared to the 18,000m3 deficit in volume reported for the 10 months to October. Hardwood import volumes have been higher in both October and November 2024, with the Baltic States and Romania being the main drivers of this improvement. Volumes from Latvia were 14% higher in 2024 to date; volumes from Estonia were 8% higher and a 9% increase was recorded from Romania. Volumes from France were very similar to 2023 but overall hardwood volumes have been impacted by significantly lower volumes from the USA and Cameroon.
UK tropical hardwood imports from the Cameroon were around 3,500m3 lower in the 11 months of 2024 which, when added to the 2,500m3 reduction in volume from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (Zaire) and a 2,000m3 reduction from Malaysia, accounted for most of the 3.5% reduction in 2024 to date. However, higher volumes were imported from the Congo Republic and Poland, with other smaller increases in volume imported through Latvia and Italy.
Imports of hardwood plywood in the 11 months of 2024 to November grew by around 1.6% (around 15,000m3). Imports from China fuelled this growth with an increase in the year-to-date of just over 30,000m3. Around 3,000m3 of growth was also realised from Latvia. There were substantial losses in volume from many other supplying countries, however, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Finland, Spain, Italy and Belgium.
Up until the end of October 2024, hardwood plywood imports were at almost the same level as in the 10 months of 2023, but the 15,000m3 growth for the 11 months of 2024 has come from the volume increases seen in November 2024. Most of this growth came from China, with a monthly increase of over 12,000m3, along with good growth from Indonesia and Malaysia.
“The growth we’ve seen in October and November has almost completely wiped out the import deficit as we approach the end of the year, making it likely that the full-year results will see either no deficit or perhaps even some growth once December’s results are published," says TDUK Head of Technical and Trade, Nick Boulton.
“This is encouraging news considering the challenging period we’ve seen in 2024, and supports the Construction Products Association’s (CPA) latest winter forecast, which has predicted growth for 2025 after two years of falling outputs. The CPA has predicted new housing will grow by 5.5% in 2025, housing repair, maintenance and improvement (RMI) for 2025 predicting a 2.8% rise.
“The good correlation between UK housing output and softwood imports suggests that, should the CPA growth forecast be realised in 2025, softwood imports will likely grow, supporting the NSD’s own growth forecast for 2025. Following three years of low demand for softwood and other timber products, improved housing output is expected to facilitate modest growth in softwood imports in 2025.”
