According to Timber Development UK, timber import volumes for the first six months of 2024 remain lower than we saw in 2023, but monthly figures show that the deficit is continuing to fall, raising hopes that 2024 as a whole may end up meeting, or even marginally exceeding, the previous year.
Volumes of the main timber and panel products from January to June 2024 were 3.6% lower than during the same period in 2023. However, it’s important to note that the deficit has reduced steadily every month since March 2024 and, with second-half 2023 volumes having been relatively weak, there is hope that if the market continues to improve during Q3 and Q4 this year, we could finish 2024 seeing marginal growth across the market.
Total import volumes during Q2 2024 were 1.2% below those seen in Q2 2023. There were more pronounced differences between solid wood imports (both softwood and hardwood), which were 1.2% higher in 2024 than in 2023, and panel products, which fell by a more significant 6.1% during the same period.
The first half of 2024 has been characterised by one month delivering volume below the same month of 2023 followed by one month delivering higher volume than the same month a year earlier.
For June specifically, imports were 0.5% better than in June 2023, which was enough to help reduce the volume deficit from 4.3% between January and May, to 3.6% for the first six months. Within this deficit, engineered wood products saw the largest fall in volumes, and softwood imports the smallest.
Interestingly, the value of planed softwoods remained almost the same as in 2023, down by just 0.3%, while the value of sawn goods fell by 7%. The overall softwood decline was caused by the 2.6% reduction in volume, coupled with a 1.3% fall in the average price of the basket of softwood imports.
Hardwood imports were around 7% lower than in the first half of 2023, largely due to a fall in imports from Latvia, although increased volumes from other countries including France, Estonia Romania and The Congo Republic have helped to partially offset this fall. Plywood import values have seen an 11% fall, with softwood plywood values falling 23%, and hardwood plywoods 7% down on H1 2023. The 7% fall in the value of hardwood plywood was very much price related with an average reduction in price of 11% which drove values down, despite a 4% rise in the volume of hardwood plywood in the first half of 2024.
“The continued timber import deficit remains disappointing but is nevertheless unsurprising given the wider construction outlook," says TDUK Head of Technical and Trade, Nick Boulton. "The most recent data from the Ministry of Housing, Communities, and Local Government shows that housing starts in Q1 2024 were the lowest Q1 starts for 15 years and 39% below those seen in Q1 2023, with the picture further skewed by the short-lived race to register housing starts in Q2 2023 before changes to the Building Regulation came into force.
“However, the latest Construction Products Association summer forecast is predicting growth will return in 2025, preceded by an estimated 11% decrease for 2024 as a whole. A strong finish to 2024 would be required to achieve these levels, but this does, we believe, offer some green shoots of hope that the worst is now behind us.”
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